Will a Skilled Worker Visa Cap be Introduced in the U.K.?

Applications from main Skilled Workers for visas have risen 14 percent so far this year, showing demand for foreign workers remains strong

A policy of capping the number of long-term visas issued each year as a way of controlling runaway immigration in the United Kingdom has been bandied about for years. But will it work?

Rishi Sunak pledged earlier this year that the Conservatives would introduce an annual cap on the number of work and family visas issued by the U.K. if his party won the July 4 general election. The exact number of visas granted each year would be determined by a vote in parliament with the cap to be determined by the Migration Advisory Committee, the government’s independent adviser on immigration policy.

Costs that would be considered before arriving at the cap would include the extra burden on public services, wage depression caused by foreign labour, the knock-on effects on tax revenue, the impact on the domestic workforce such as higher numbers on jobless benefits and the pressure that immigration imposes on housing.

But would such a cap work in the U.K. and would it be desirable? Net migration, the number of people coming to live in the U.K. for the long-term minus those emigrating, climbed to a record 764,000 in 2022, about three times the annual average before the pandemic. Net migration, fell 10 percent in 2023 to 685,000 but is still well above the level before the pandemic. About 41 percent of long-term visas issued by the U.K. last year were to Skilled Workers so, the impetus for policy action is strong.

A possible cap on Skilled Worker visas will certainly affect British industry by restricting their ability to hire foreign talent. This could have significant implications for organisations such as the National Health Service and the country’s information technology industry. Another option would be to restrict foreign workers’ ability to settle in the U.K. but that will make the country less attractive to them and deter the highly skilled from coming to the country. Migration without settlement will also restrict the possibility of migrants integrating into British communities.

If reducing net migration to the U.K. is an objective of policy, it would possibly be more sensible to have a broad target than a cap. Rather than limiting immigration numbers in certain categories, a target-based approach would allow a government to raise or lower the bar to achieve a certain desirable or promised level of net migration. It is likely that a government would find itself converging on a target over time – that is, changing policy in a given year on the basis of immigration levels in the previous year.

Having a cap would also throw up operational challenges. If certain visas were limited annually, what would happen if the limits were met in October or June?

The Labour Party’s manifesto says its government will reform the points-based immigration system so that it is fair and properly managed, with appropriate restrictions on visas. It will also link immigration and skills policy. But it is unclear at the moment what kind of reform that would involve.

The Home Office has said that U.K. immigration numbers will start falling once a series of measures announced by the government in December start to take effect.

The measures taken have included scrapping dependant visas for care workers, increasing the threshold salary for a Skilled Worker visa to £38,700 from £26,200 and disallowing foreign students not involved in research to bring in dependants from January 1, 2024. All of this should help to cut net migration by about 300,000 a year, the Home Office has said.

The moves are already having some impact. The number of applications for health and care visas has dropped 80 percent in the first eight months of this year from the same period a year ago and of their dependants by 47 percent. Similarly, visa applications from foreign students and their dependants have fallen 31 percent. Still, applications from main Skilled Workers for visas have risen 14 percent this year, showing demand for workers still remains strong and that possibly other restrictions may be needed. New policy action may be forthcoming then.

So, if you are considering applying for a Skilled Worker visa for the U.K. it might be sensible to act sooner rather than later. There is no knowing how these prospective changes might impact you. One thing is pretty certain: that getting into the U.K. and achieving permanent residency will not get any easier.